We use an advanced model of the global economy to consider a set of scenarios consistent with the proposal to impose a minimum 60% tariff against Chinese imports and blanket minimum 10% tariff against all other US imports. The basis for the tariff rates is a proposal from former President Elect Donald Trump. Our central finding is that a global trade war between the United States and the rest of the world at these tariff rates would cost the US economy over $910 billion.

This research introduces a methodological framework for analyzing strategic interactions in oligopoly settings where firms have private information on costs, further enhancing our understanding of competition and market behavior. The developed framework was applied to the crude-oil market, demonstrating its practical relevance.

This paper develops novel econometric techniques to estimate and conduct inference on a seller’s expected revenue in first-price auctions, one of the most popular auction format used in practice, providing valuable tools for auction design and policy evaluation.

This research considers the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated government policies on the global trading system and its ability to deliver food to impoverished people. Income and price shocks are considered as they impact the ability of low-income households to acquire food. We estimate the impact of the pandemic on food security in 80 countries. We find increased food insecurity predominantly driven by income rather than price shocks.

Children who receive education from Head Start, a federally-funded preschool program for disadvantaged kids that prepares them for success in elementary school, find improved chances of having financial independence in adulthood. Research also shows this greatly decreases the odds that those children require public assistance from federal programs, ultimately generating revenue, rather than costs, for the government.

While eviction has its negative effects on a person, research shows the extent of its consequences are minimal compared to the financial strain experienced years leading up to the eviction. Alongside that, the study showed minor impact from evictions on debt in collections, residential mobility or neighborhood poverty.