Schools close, elderly populations isolate and businesses shut down due to the coronavirus pandemic. Dr. Özgür Araz, associate professor of supply chain management and analytics and Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute Faculty Fellow at Nebraska Business, believes decisions imposed to change the way we live in the short-term stem from critical research analysis now in the hands of government and health care providers.

Araz’s research examines decision sciences specifically related to health systems, like pandemic decision-making. He teaches predictive analytics and knows his work impacts lives in a time of crisis.

“People don’t always think about how analytics tools and supply chain management can be used for the public good. We use predictive analytics for mitigating pandemics and supply chain management to use public resources more effectively,” Araz said.

His most recent article published in Decision Sciences in December 2019 studies capacity optimization under resource shortages. Previously, he looked at challenges of stockpiling ventilators for influenza pandemics and school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision-making.

“We know the coronavirus has higher fatality rates than the H1N1 influenza in 2009,” Araz said. “When you don’t know much about the virus, you need to gain time for the health care system to prepare to provide the most effective response. Social distancing measures are critical for gaining time to better understand what’s happening.”

Araz explained economic impacts are taken into consideration when modeling effective decision-making. It helps answer whether school closings and social distancing policies are cost effective.

“People say it costs a lot, but if we save more lives, it makes it cost effective. Optimizing social distancing intervention depends on this modeling research. We take a societal perspective regarding years of life lost, parents staying home with children impacting the workforce and all the other factors we are dealing with today.”

Dr. Jennifer Ryan, chair and Ron and Carol Cope Professor of Supply Chain Management and Analytics, said his research also helps CDC officials prepare for situations in which hospitals and clinics see an influx of patients.

“We’ve all heard the discussions of ‘flattening the curve’,” Ryan said. “The modeling tools Özgür developed can provide critical insights into how we best allocate scarce resources during a pandemic. Unlike business problems, where the objective is typically measured in dollars, societal problems often involve complicated trade-offs between costs and benefits measured in lives lost or quantities related to quality of life.”