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December 21, 2021

Ongoing Growth in Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator

Moderate Economic Growth Expected in the Second Quarter of Next Year
Ongoing Growth in Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator
The Nebraska Leading Economic Indicator rose in November by 0.96%, suggesting that moderate economic growth will continue in Nebraska during the second quarter of 2022.

Nebraska’s leading economic indicator rose in November, according to the most recent report from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. The leading indicator, designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, increased by 0.96%.

“The indicator has risen for two consecutive months, suggesting that moderate economic growth will continue in Nebraska during the second quarter of 2022,” said economist Eric Thompson, department chair, K.H. Nelson College Professor of Economics and director of Bureau of Business Research.

The six components of Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator are business expectations, building permits for single-family homes, airline passenger counts, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the value of the U.S. dollar and manufacturing hours worked.

Most components of the leading indicator rose in Nebraska during November. Building permits rose for the second consecutive month.

“The increase in permits shows that builders plan to work through labor and supply challenges to meet strong demand,” said Thompson.Hours-worked in the manufacturing sector also rose in November given strong demand for manufactured goods across the country.

“Businesses expectations were strong throughout the economy,” according to Thompson. Respondents to the November Survey of Nebraska Businesses reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months.

“Optimistic businesses continue to hire,” said Thompson, “leading to another decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance in Nebraska.”

The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available at the Bureau of Business Research website, https://bbr.unl.edu.