Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator increased slightly in February, according to the most recent report from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. The indicator, designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, rose 0.05%.
“The modest increase in the leading indicator suggests that the economy will continue to grow slowly, keeping the state economy out of recession over the next six months,” said economist Eric Thompson, department chair, K.H. Nelson College Professor of Economics and director of Bureau of Business Research.
The six components of Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator include business expectations, building permits for single-family homes, airline passenger counts, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the value of the U.S. dollar and manufacturing hours worked.
Half of the indicator components improved during February. Manufacturing hours increased, and business expectations improved.
“There has been sustained growth in Nebraska manufacturing during the current economic recovery," said Thompson. “Respondents to the February Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans to increase sales and employment over the next six months."
Other indicator components worsened. Notably, there was a decline in building permits for single-family homes on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
“Rising interest rates have slowed activity in the housing sector,” explained Thompson.
The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available at the Bureau of Business Research website, https://bbr.unl.edu.
Published: March 31, 2023