A Rising Leading Economic Indicator Forecast in Nebraska

Nebraska’s economy should accelerate during mid-2015, according to the latest Leading Economic Indicator report from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator, designed to predict economic growth six months into the future, rose by 0.40 percent in January. Two of six economic factors used to calculate the indicator, business expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance, improved solidly during the month.

“The improvement in the leading indicator suggests that economic growth will accelerate in Nebraska during mid-2015,” said economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “The Survey of Nebraska Business found positive expectations for both sales and employment growth over the next 6 months.”

The indicator is produced by faculty and students in the Economics Department and the Bureau of Business Research in UNL’s College of Business Administration.

“One negative component was the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar,” Thompson said. “The continued increase in the value of the U.S. dollar creates pricing pressures for Nebraska export businesses, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture.”