A Modest Decline in Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator

Limited Growth in State Economic Growth in First Half of 2023

The University of Nebraska–Lincoln Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), used to predict economic activity six months into the future, fell by 0.03% in December. Eric Thompson, department chair, K.H. Nelson College Professor of Economics and director of the Bureau of Business Research, indicated the decline infers there will be limited growth in the Nebraska economy in the first half of 2023.

Watch Video

Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator fell in December, according to the most recent report from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. Designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, the Leading Economic Indicator dropped by 0.03%.

“The leading indicator has declined in most recent months, suggesting there will be limited growth in the Nebraska economy in the first half of 2023,” said economist Eric Thompson, department chair, K.H. Nelson College Professor of Economics and director of Bureau of Business Research.

The six components of Nebraska’s Leading Economic Indicator include business expectations, building permits for single-family homes, airline passenger counts, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the value of the U.S. dollar and manufacturing hours worked.

Three components of the leading indicator worsened during December. Airline passenger counts fell in December on a seasonally adjusted basis.

“Airline passenger counts fall when businesses grow less optimistic, and households become less confident about future income," according to Thompson.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose. “Increasing claims for unemployment insurance indicate a softening in the Nebraska labor market,” said Thompson.

Building permits for single-family homes also fell in Nebraska during December amid higher interest rates.

The full report and a technical report describing the indicators are available at the Bureau of Business Research website, https://bbr.unl.edu.