Research

Predicting Net Discount Rates: A Comparison of Professional Forecasts, Time-series Forecasts and Traditional Methods

Previous research proposed two future net discount rate estimators that improved on naïve long-term average and random walk estimators. The proposed estimators were superior in the class of estimators that used only current and past observations on net discount rates. In this paper we consider two extensions. First we examine whether professional forecasts perform significantly better than the two alternatives. Second, we examine the properties and performance of multivariate estimators that account for the potentially differing time-series behaviors of the underlying wage growth and interest rate series.

Publication Information
Article Title: Predicting Net Discount Rates: A Comparison of Professional Forecasts, Time-series Forecasts and Traditional Methods
Journal: Journal of Forensic Economics (Jun, 2010)
21(2)
Author(s): Cushing, Matthew J;  Rosenbaum, David I
Researcher Information
    
Cushing, Matthew J
Cushing, Matthew J
Professor
Expertise:
  • Labor Economics
  • Econometrics
  • Macroeconomics
Economics
HLH 525 U
P.O. Box 880489
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Lincoln, NE 68588-0489, USA
Phone: (402) 472-2323
Fax: (402) 472-4426
mcushing1@unl.edu
Rosenbaum, David I
Rosenbaum, David I
Professor
Expertise:
  • Forensic Economics
  • Applied Microeconomics
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
Economics
HLH 525 J
P.O. Box 880489
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Lincoln, NE 68588-0489, USA
Phone: (402) 472-2318
Fax: (402) 472-4426
drosenbaum1@unl.edu