Return Predictability and the P/E Ratio: Reading the Entrails

The P/E ratio has been used by practitioners and economists as an indicator of market valuations. Shiller [2000] warned that P/E ratios were dangerously high relative to their historical averages. This ratio, however, should in an efficient market vary with factors such as risk, time preferences, inflation, and market expectations. The authors use the residuals from a regression that controls for the effect of these factors on the E/P ratio to provide information about the behavior of the market. They find that the residuals from the model provide a reliable signal of future market behavior.

Publication Information
Article Title: Return Predictability and the P/E Ratio: Reading the Entrails
Journal: Journal of Investing (Sep, 2008)
Author(s): Dudney, Donna;  Jirasakuldech, Benjamas;  Zorn, Thomas S.
Researcher Information
Dudney, Donna
Dudney, Donna
Associate Dean of Undergraduate Curriculum and Programs
  • Financial Institutions
  • Financial Markets & Investing
  • Managerial Economics
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