Slight Increase in The Leading Economic Indicator - Nebraska

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.09% in May 2013. This slight increase in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic growth six months in the future, followed a solid increase in April. The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska is produced by faculty and students in the Department of Economics and Bureau of Business Research within the UNL College of Business Administration.

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska is a composite of six components which predict future economic growth: single-family building permits, airline passenger counts, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar, and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business. “The slight increase in the Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska during May failed to build on the solid increase observed in April,” said University of Nebraska-Lincoln economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research. “This suggests moderate rather than strong growth in the Nebraska economy during the fall of 2013.”

“There was a mixed performance among individual components of the Leading Economic Indicator - Nebraska during May,” according to Thompson. Three of the six components of the LEI-N rose during May. There were improvements in housing starts, airline passenger counts and business expectations during the month. However, three components also declined. There was a decline in manufacturing hours and an increase in initial unemployment claims. An increase in the value of the U.S. dollar also suggests future competitive pressure on businesses that export.