Nebraska Economic Indicator Dips in July Following June's Gain

Following a strong increase in June, the Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska declined by 1.05 percent in July, according to economists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s College of Business Administration.

The Indicator is designed to predict economic growth within Nebraska six months into the future. Taking June and July together, the Indicator suggests modest growth in the state’s economy through the end of 2013 and into early 2014, said UNL economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research.

“Throughout this year, the pattern for Nebraska economic growth has been one step forward, followed by one step back,” Thompson said. “Each time the Nebraska leading indicator signals strong growth, the signal is weak in the month that follows. We continue to wait for signs of sustainable, robust growth.”

Produced by UNL’s Department of Economics and the Bureau for Business Research, the Leading Economic Indicator is a composite of six components that predict future economic growth. They are single-family building permits, airline passenger counts, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business.

“There were few signals of growth in the July data,” Thompson said. “Manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts declined while initial unemployment claims rose. The value of the U.S. dollar rose again, signaling continued pressure on exporters. Even business expectations were slightly negative in July, among respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business.”