The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska was largely unchanged in September, rising by just .09 percent. The slight increase followed two months of solid growth in the indicator in July and August, and indicates that Nebraska’s economy will grow at a moderate pace in the final month of 2012 and the first few months of 2013.

“The outlook was mixed in September,” said economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research, which produces the monthly figures. “Two components improved, including a solid increase in single-family building permits during the month. However, four components declined – including manufacturing hours, airline passenger counts and business expectations. There was also a slight uptick in unemployment claims.”

The Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska, which is produced by the Department of Economics and Bureau of Business Research in the UNL College of Business Administration, is a composite of six components that predict future economic growth. They are single-family building permits, airline passenger counts, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business.

By comparison to September’s figures, the state’s leading economic indicator increased by 1.16 percent in July and 0.88 percent in August.

Looking at the rest of the year, Thompson said that recent values for the Leading Economic Indicator for Nebraska suggest the state’s economy will grow slowly through November but accelerate to reach a moderate pace of growth in December.

“The Nebraska economy is currently working through a rough patch, but sustained growth is expected to return in just a few months,” Thompson said.

• BBR Complete Leading Economic Indicator Reports
• October Monthly Economic Indicator Report
• Audio Overview of LEI October Report

Published: October 19, 2012