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BBR March Economic Indicator Report

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska increased by 0.93% in February 2012, indicating that the Nebraska economy will grow at a moderate rate in mid-2012. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase in the Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska, which is produced by faculty and students in the Department of Economics and Bureau of Business Research within the UNL College of Business Administration.

Leading Economic Indicator Graph - Nebraska

March Leading Economic Indicator - Nebraska

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska is a composite of six components which predict future economic growth: single-family housing starts, airline passengers, initial unemployment claims, manufacturing hours, the value of the U.S. dollar, and business expectations gathered from the Survey of Nebraska Business.

“Most of the increase in the Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska in February was due to a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, which will help future export activity,” said University of Nebraska-Lincoln economist Eric Thompson, director of the Bureau of Business Research.

Rising business expectations also contributed to growth in the LEI-N. Three other components, building permits, manufacturing hours and the number of airline passengers, changed little between January 2012 and February 2012. Only trends in initial unemployment claims suggested slower growth. Initial unemployment claims rose on a seasonally adjusted basis between January and February 2012. 

Thompson said that growth in the Leading Economic Indicator in January 2012 suggests that the Nebraska economy will accelerate later in the 2012. “Leading indicator data from late 2011 signaled that economic growth would be weak in the Nebraska during March and April 2012, but indicator values for December, January and February point to moderate growth from May through August 2012.”

Published: March 16, 2012